Three newly created wallets on the prediction market Polymarket profited a combined $484,575 by betting that the United States and Iran would agree to a ceasefire by April 7. According to blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain, the wallets had no prior on-chain activity before placing “yes” bets on the market.
The “yes” bets were placed at probabilities between 2.9% and 10.3%, and the three wallets made their first trades within 26 hours of the announcement. One trader placed their initial bet at 1:59 pm UTC on Tuesday, roughly eight and a half hours before US President Donald Trump confirmed the ceasefire on Truth Social. The other two wallets placed bets at 10:01 am UTC on Tuesday and 8:50 pm UTC on Monday. Individual profits were $200,525, $158,600, and $125,450.
The ceasefire, agreed to on Tuesday, lasts two weeks, though neither side has ruled out future military action. Prediction markets like Polymarket have surpassed $10 billion in monthly trading volume, attracting scrutiny over insider trading. Past incidents include a US Polymarket user profiting $400,000 on a Venezuelan-related market, and arrests in Israel for alleged insider trading related to strikes on Iran.
Polymarket and Kalshi have implemented measures to detect market abuse, but concerns remain about regulatory oversight and ethical trading in prediction markets.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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