CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s supply in profit and loss is approaching levels typical of a bear market. Currently, around 11.2 million BTC are in profit, while 8.2 million BTC are at a loss. The last bear market saw a low of 9 million BTC in profit and 10.6 million BTC at a loss, indicating that current metrics are nearing previous cycle lows.
Analysts Debate Market Implications
Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue exchange, cautioned that these figures indicate increasing market stress rather than immediate undervaluation. He highlighted that true capitulation bottoms involve more extreme metrics, including net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and market value to realized value ratio (MVRV), suggesting potential structural support near $55,000 but further downside or consolidation is likely.
Macro Factors Impacting Recovery
Bitcoin’s recovery is also hampered by a strong US dollar. Timothy Peterson observed that higher dollar yields and cautious investor sentiment, particularly as the Chinese yuan weakens, limit capital inflows into crypto. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen about 5% over the past two months, reducing global liquidity and delaying a potential Bitcoin rebound until late 2026 or 2027.
Disclaimer
This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves risk and may result in financial loss.
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